Thursday, 11 February 2010

TED10 Wed PM: Making Good Food Choices


Carter Emmart

Score: 5 (out of 10) balloons

Carter is Director of Astrovisualization at Hayden Planetarium. He shared some cool renderings of the universe.

Phil Kaplan then had 3 minutes to pitch Blippy - -a Twitter for shopping, where you can follow what your friends are buying. Obviously this has some good monetization but is it compelling for users?


Cheryl Hayashi

Score: 3 Balloons

Associate Professor Hayashi teaches at UC Riverside. She is an expert on spiders enumerated the many kinds of silk and how spiders spin it.



William Li
Score: 8 balloons
Dr. Li educated the audience on an exciting approach to fighting cancer. To grow into a tumor, cancer cells need a blood supply, and so if we can systemically inhibit angiogenesis (the growth of blood vessels), we can prevent tumors. One approach is to develop medical therapies that do this, as two Bessemer companies --Aveo and Acceleron -- are already doing. Aveo's drug Tivozimab, now in Phase 3 clinical trials, inhibits receptors 1, 2 and 3 of the vascular endothilial growth factors.


A second approach is a prophylactic diet that reduces the chance of cancer by eating foods that naturally include anti-angiogenic compounds. Turmeric, green tea, lavender and cooked tomatoes were at the top of the list.

My only criticism of the talk is that Dr. Li did not address the downside of of inhibiting angiogenesis. Deficient angiogenesis leads to other disease conditions including heart disease. For someone who already has cancer this risk is obviously tolerable; but inhibiting angiogenesis as a general objective in one's diet seems to present other risks.


Dan Barber

Score: 10 Balloons

"There are only two fish I've ever loved." This is the opening sentence of a love story between a famous chef and a delicious fish he once ate that he traced to a naturally sustainable fish farm. In the most entertaining talk of TED '10 (so far), Barber (in an encore appearance) explained the current state of commercial fish farming, and how it could be done better, as evidenced better by one model of natural sustainability.




Jamie Oliver (as seen on TV!)

Score: 3 Balloons


The winner of the 2010 TED Prize is TV personality Jamie Oliver, a UK chef who advocates better food choices for children. Jamie's wish was to help teach kids recipes they can cook at home so they have choices beyond junk food. It's a nice cause, but Jamie blustered and rambled his way through it, tossing out junk science and TV-bite-size simplifications. Is he really the most worthy person in the world for the TED prize? Really? What about other speakers like Dr. Li, who would have used the prize to develop anti-angiogenic compounds that fight cancer?

To be fair, I think most of the audience liked Jamie's talk. Here it is, if you wish to judge for yourself...


Wednesday's program ended with a nice performance by Sheryl Crow.

TED 10 Wed AM: The Need for More Skepticism


Strong sessions today, and I enjoyed a string of great encounters with Bill Gross, Mark Zynga, Daniel Kahneman, Michael Shermer and Scott Kurnit.

Daniel Kahneman
Score: 9 Balloons

The opening session, Mindshift, started with Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman, founder of behavioral economics. As an avid student of the subject (read my blog posts on the paralimbic cortex and irrational markets), I loved it. Kahneman took the opportunity to educate his audience on a class of cognitive traps I hadn't previously heard of, that all stem from our general inclination to mistake happy memories for experiential well-being.

We have two selves, he observed: the experiential self and the remembered self, and the remembered self dominates our thinking even though our memories are woefully incomplete. For example, which vacation is better -- the two weeks of blissful relaxation that fills every moment with joy (even though you didn't have a camera with you to record it), or the extreme expedition marked by difficult travels and punctuated by a few exciting moments from which you culled some exciting photos? Even if you factor in the hours of reminiscing that you get from those photos, the former vacation generated far more joy, and yet we tend to remember the latter vacation as better and more fun. I have thought about this very phenomenon during ski trips, when we endure tens of hours of packing, unpacking, driving, and freezing on windy chairlifts in order to experience at most two hours of memorable but fleeting downhill motion.

The decoupling of experienced and remembered happiness was validated in a pain study that chronicled people's characterizations of their colonoscopies. Every 30 seconds they rated their pain levels, and later rated the overall pain level of the operation. Oddly, their overall ratings had nothing to do with the accumulated pain they reported -- rather they reflected only the intensity of the last couple minutes of the procedure. In other words, the memory of a very painful procedure could be improved by adding some low intensity pan at the end, since that's what patients remembered as they rated the overall pain level. The experiential self may have had an awful time, but the remembering self would have thought it was okay.

Khaneman's talk gets a 9 for provoking these questions: How does this insight impact our everyday decisions, and how can we know who experiences real well-being when only our remembering selves report in? Of course, Kahneman himself deserves a high rating for his contribution to economics. (And speaking to him later, I was proud that he had high praise for my college roommate David Laibson, now a behavioral economist at Harvard.)


Dave Cameron
7balloons.jpg Score: 7 Balloons
UK Conservative leader Dave Cameron chimed in by satellite video from London, discussing the need for transparency, choice and accountability in government. Cameron, projected to win the coming election, impressed the audience as intelligent, compelling and -- most importantly for his campaign -- entertaining. Speaking from the British Film Academy, he quipped, "Politics is show business for ugly people."

Although he didn't really put forward any original thinking, he referenced a great quote from Robert Kennedy citing the need to look beyond gross national product for the success of a society. Asked whether he disagreed with Clinton that "It's the Economy, Stupid!" Cameron replied that a strong economy is the means to an end, not the end itself. A compassionate conservative! How exciting that in the UK conservatism is rooted in libertarianism rather than Christianity. (Having said that, Cameron's opposition to a pan-European currency confounds me.)

Here is Cameron's talk:





Esther Duflo
Score: 8 Balloons
"Our next speaker," announced TED Curator Chris Anderson, "describes herself as short, French, vivacious and pig-headed." No, it wasn't Nathalie -- it was Esther Duflo, who applies the scientific method to resolving debates on how to mitigate hunger, disease and poverty in Africa.
Specifically she cited three experiments to advance us beyond the equivalent of "giving the patient leeches" because we don't know what really helps. For example, they wanted to test anti-malarial campaigns to dispense bednets -- is it better to give them away (will people use them? will people be willing to pay for them when you stop giving them away?), to charge full price so they are valued, or to sell them at a discount? (Bednets are an extremely effective and economical way to stop malaria among the people who use them and their neighbors, since malarial spreads among villagers.) Her team arranged for coupons to be distributed that carried a range of discounts from very small to free. They found that the coupons with the greatest discounts, especially the free ones, were redeemed more than others (of course) but more importantly those bednets were used just as much, and the users were just as likely as the others (even a little bit more) to later buy more bednets themselves.

Duflo also cited an experiment that measured how many incremental hours of education per child resulted in a dollar invested in various types of support. Surprisingly, it turned out that deworming treatments and informational campaigns on the benefits of education were 10X more effective than investing in meals, teachers and scholarships. Counter-intuitive, but proven!

Michael Shermer
Score: 9 Balloons

Those of you who read my blog know that Shermer
has been my hero for many years. He runs the Skeptics Society and has written several great books on the pervasive deficits of critical thinking.
In this encore appearance at TED, Shermer talked about patternicity -- the evolutionary adaptation we have developed to see patterns in data -- sometimes a good thing but sometimes not. Evolution has favored high patternicity -- hypersensitivity to dangers leads to short term survival, even at the expense of resources. And so we have an overdeveloped sense of patternicity. Dopamine enhancers like cocaine increase patternicity, and our right brain hemispheres are particularly culpable, as evidenced in experiments where we expose data with possible patterns to one eye or the other. While patternicity sometimes serves us well (scientists depend upon it), too much can drive us mad, as it did John Nash. Paranoia, in fact, can be viewed as an extreme state of patternicity.
Shermer brought some great visual examples of data sets where elusive patterns exist, and other examples where patterns are mistakenly perceived. For example, the Iraqi government recently bought hundreds of Electrostatic Magnetic Ion Bomb Detectors for $40,000 each, even though EMIBs are nothing but hollow plastic boxes with protruding antennae.

Wednesday, 10 February 2010

TED 2010: What the World Needs Now


I'm here in Long Beach, CA blogging my fourth TED conference. My objective is to once again provide a road map of the TED talks so that, as the TED talks are published, you can be sure to catch the best ones. In past years I've done this for TED '07, TED '08 and TED '09 with increasing detail, and many folks have thanked me for the effort (though not so much the TED staff, who may not always appreciate the low scores that inevitably creep in).

This year's lineup of speakers looks better than ever, and I'm excited for the first time to have Nathalie with me here to experience it. Like last year, I'll rank the talks on a scale of 1 to 10 TED balloons, based on three dimensions:

(i) CONTENT -- how compelling and timely is the subject matter?

(ii) DELIVERY -- is the talk lively and entertaining?

(iii) SPEAKER -- how much has this speaker personally contributed to the subject matter?

Stay tuned for a rundown of today's sessions...

Update: TED 2010 is done and it was great -- better than ever.

Some recurring themes: irrational thinking leads to bad food choices, HIV infections, climate change and war; our educational system must accommodate and celebrate learning differences; and nuclear power presents an intriguing stop-gap source of power until we can harness the sun.

Lots of great TED moments: lunch with Professor and Mrs. Dan Dennett, the late night party with Nathalie Merchant, LXD and Robert Gupta, and my elevator ride with Al and Albert Gore.

There were three 10-balloon talks: Dan Barber, Raghava KK and Ken Robinson.

Detailed descriptions and ratings at:


Wednesday, 3 February 2010

Stopping a Runaway Toyota

I present a guest post today on the emerging dangers of buggy automotive circuitry, contributed by an expert in both law and physics -- my father Martin Cowan...

Do you have a Toyota or other car manufactured by Toyota (e.g., Lexus or Prius)? If not, do you have a car manufactured by anyone else?

One of the terrible accidents reported in the NY Times a few days ago described a 911 call from a panic-stricken driver (an off-duty police officer). He was screaming into the phone that the car was accelerating, that he could not stop it, and that the brakes wouldn't work. The call ended with the sound of a crash. He and his three passengers were all killed instantly.

As the stories unfold in the press, the problem is not restricted to the accelerator pedal, but also includes the brakes. Toyota has known of both problems for many years, but has tried to minimize it. For example, it usually blamed sudden acceleration on floor mats getting stuck on the pedal. However, in several accidents, there were no mats in the car (or they were found in the trunk). It is still minimizing the problem, claiming that the replacement of the current gas pedal will do the trick, even though this fix has failed before, and there is no hard evidence that that is actually the problem.

Moreover, the reports of brake failure cannot be explained by faulty gas pedals. The driver on the 911 call reported that the brakes were not working, and there are multiple stories elsewhere to the same effect.

The US National Traffic Safety Administration thinks that electromagnetic fields may be fouling the electronic circuits. Toyota denies this possibility (see yesterday's NY Times). But if this is the case, no cosmetic fixes like replacing gas pedals is going to work. Moreover, the problem may extend to every car manufactured today with electronic circuitry that controls its operations.

When I first started driving, several centuries ago, the gas pedal was connected to the fuel pump by mechanical means. Today, the gas pedal depresses a sensor, which sends a signal to the computer board. This board processes this signal, along with all of the other data being fed to it from other sensors, and determines how much gasoline and air to feed to the engine. It then sends another electric signal to a fuel injector than controls how much of the gas/air mixture is fed to the engine.

There is a similar situation with brakes and steering. Until about the 1950’s, when power assisted brakes and power assisted steering became available, both braking and steering were purely mechanical procedures. The brake pedal was connected physically to the brakes, and the steering wheel mechanism was directly connected to the front axle. Today, both the brake pedal and the steering wheel operate motors which do most of the braking and steering. You might still be able to operate the brakes and steering when the engine is off, but it would take a great deal of strength to do that, too much to be useful during an emergency.

We all know the frustration when our personal computers crash or freeze up. It happens all the time. In almost every case, it is just an inconvenience. We re-boot and the worst possibility is the loss of some data or the corruption of a file. When the computer in an engine in an automobile going 60 miles per hour “crashes”, so does the vehicle, and the damage to the occupants goes beyond an inconvenience.

What is amazing is that we have been using these devices in our automobiles for so many years and they have not failed more often than they do.

The possibility that electromagnetic fields can cause the electronics to fail is downright scary, We live in a sea of magnetic fields. Radio and TV signals, cell phone calls, overhead power lines, even sun spots generate these fields. The list is endless. While most of the fields are pretty weak, the effect may be cumulative. Moreover, we have no idea how many times we pass through much stronger fields during the day as we go by facilities using high energy equipment. Imagine the consternation in Silicon Valley if it turns out that the IPhone being used by an occupant in the automobile (not just the driver) is responsible! (Maybe that's why the Woz reported today that his own Prius has an overactive accelerator.)

It seems to this writer that this problem is not going to be solved by replacing a gas pedal. Worse, if it is a problem with the electronic circuitry, many other automobile manufacturers may find that they have similar problems. At the least, new cars will have to have better shielding for the electronics, as well as better redundancy and fail-safe systems, including perhaps, manual cutoffs operable from the driver’s position.

In the meantime, what should you do if you are in a car that starts to accelerate and you cannot control it?

Whether or not you think that you have a car that might have this kind of problem, you should still have a plan of action in mind should the situation arise. All the drivers in the family should go over this. You may also want to verify with your mechanic whether these work. Not every model of automobile will respond the same and the efficacy of these suggestions might have to be varied to account for the differences in your particular car. Don't be surprised if the mechanic doesn't know all of this, or only repeats the Toyota press releases. (If he just assures you that Toyota has already solved the problem, consider getting another mechanic.)

If the engine is racing out of control and the brakes won't work there are two possible ways to bring the car under control.


1) The better and safer method is the following:

MOVE THE TRANSMISSION TO NEUTRAL.

This should work in all models. However, verify with your mechanic, or try it yourself at a low speed on a clear road. It is conceivable that, on some models, the transmission level merely operates some electronic circuits, like the gas pedal, in which case you might not be able to shift gears, either. I just don’t know.

Assuming that you are able to get the transmission into neutral, the engine will still be racing at full throttle, but it won’t be sending any power to the wheels. Unless there is something terribly wrong with all of the electronics in the car, and not just the engine circuit boards, the brakes and steering will continue to work properly, and you will retain full control over the vehicle. You should be able to stop it within a hundred feet or so. Even if the power brakes fail (as happened in some of the accidents reported in the newspapers), the car will eventually slow down by itself. You can also try to use the brakes manually—difficult without power brakes but not impossible—and apply the hand brake.

2) Another method, but clearly inferior, is to try to turn off the engine. If you can, the car will stop accelerating (unless you are going down a steep hill). But this won’t slow the car down very quickly (unless you are going uphill). There is still the problem of trying to stop it before it hits something really hard. If the engine is off, the power assists to both the brakes and the steering will be disabled, making it difficult to use the brakes and the steering. Depending on the design of the engine circuitry, the brakes might not work at all. If this happens, you can try applying the parking brake, although this is usually a very weak brake and it would take much longer to bring the car to a halt using this method. Finally, if none of the brakes work, you would just have to let the car roll to a stop. If it is going over 60 miles an hour on a level grade when you cut the engine, it could take a mile or more to stop the car this way. (My 1991 Mazda, which gets up to 38 miles to the gallon, might go 10 miles before stopping; my SUV, which gets 8 miles to the gallon, would probably stop in about 10 feet.)

Without power steering, you may still be able to control the steering at higher speeds (over 20 miles an hour), although you probably will need a significant amount of brute force to do this. When the car speed drops below 20, it will become harder and harder to control the steering wheel, but not necessarily impossible. Just takes even more force. Again, your car mechanic will know how the steering on your car would work if the engine is off.

The bottom line on this technique is that it is better than nothing, but can give you a lot of difficulty maintaining braking and steering control.

You should verify all of these suggestions with a mechanic who understands how the engine, steering and brakes in your particular car are wired up.

Meanwhile, all class action plaintiffs’ attorneys, rev up your engines. Your “action” is just beginning.

Sunday, 24 January 2010

In a Liquidity Crisis, Who Will Buy?


Who Will Buy, by the Avery Buddy Quartet.

Ten-year-old Avery Cowan leads his quartet in their rendition of Who Will Buy, from the musical Oliver. Rob Sequiera sings baritone, Tom Shields sings bass, and Dave Binetti sings tenor.

Tuesday, 12 January 2010

Escape to Maui


The successful entrepreneur exhibits hope, critical thinking, and determination. These are the traits you will see in this short home movie of what my 10-year-old did over his holiday break (click on the Full Screen option for the HD experience)...


Watch this on Vimeo.

Monday, 16 November 2009

I'm gonna sing about baby Jesus!


Nothing says "Holiday" better than the rich a capella sound of 72 Christians, four Jews and an atheist. Under the direction of Dr. Greg Lyne, Voices in Harmony will perform a variety of traditional seasonal works including "It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year" (Pola and Wyle), "Hallelujah Chorus" (Handel), "Hodie Christus Natus Est" (Gregorian Chant), and the obligatory Hanukah number Feast of Lights. Joining as special guests are the Santa Clara Chorale under the direction of Ryan James Brandau, performing several outstanding pieces including "Ave Maria" (Busto). Plus, there will be a kids' chorus, and a sing-a-long!

PURCHASE BY PHONE
(408)792-4111

PURCHASE ONLINE
Buy Now


Tickets are also available at the
SJ Convention Center Box Office and Ticketmaster locations.
Box Office hours are Monday - Friday, 9am to 5pm

For more information, visit us at www.vihchorus.org or

facebook myspace